Backed by positive economic announcements from the Empire Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production, along with much improved growth from Europe, the market broke its string of four losing sessions with the S&P gaining 0.6% and the recently weak Russell 2000 up a sturdy 1.2%. Virtually all sectors did well, led by Energy, Industrials and Financials.  Energy was up by more than 1%.

The market ended last week up about 1% with Large-cap Growth leading the way, up 1.15%.  Worst was the cap/style that has led for over a year, Small-cap Growth, up only 0.08%.  Clearly, traders were cautious, as value did better than growth in Mid- and Small-caps.  Large-cap leading is another sign of caution. 

As most everyone expected, Congressional brinksmanship gave way to an eleventh hour agreement that will put the government back in business and raise the debt ceiling. However, it’s only a temporary measure that merely defers another knock-down/drag-out for a few months. The question is, how will investors react after an initial bullish burst of relief?

Stocks have shown some resiliency this week as they have made an attempt to recover from last week’s weakness, which was primarily due to the imminent threat of a US strike on Syria. Also, the senior portfolio managers are returning to the fold after taking some time off in late August, and they are likely seeing more opportunities than threats at the moment.

Anxious bulls no doubt are looking for ways to rustle awake this sleepy late-summer stock market, before the bears stealthily bring it down. Investors’ focus has been on the Fed and what it might do next month, and Wednesday’s release of the July FOMC meeting minutes showed almost all the voting members supported no change in stimulus, with only a few hawks insisting that tapering should begin sooner.

Bond yields have crept back up to near multi-year highs as the bond market appears to be anticipating some measure of tapering in the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program. This undoubtedly has caused some hesitancy among stock investors, too. And then there are the looming debt ceiling and budget battles, as well as concern about slowing corporate earnings growth. And let’s not forget the comparisons to 1987 we are hearing, with Marc Faber (a.k.a., “Dr.

We are in the thick of earnings season, and so far the general trend has been as anticipated: modest if any top-line growth and more earnings beats than misses (albeit versus a low bar). But forward guidance has been the big decider on how the stock trades post-earnings, and the message has been decidedly mixed, as many companies have had to reduce guidance or otherwise failed to make the grade in other important growth metrics.

Stock investors are protecting gains and holding off on deploying cash as concerns abound about central banks, including the Federal Reserve, tapering off on their stimulus programs, i.e., money printing. Low-interest policies and quantitative easing have been the driving force for economic recovery while pushing return-hungry investors into equities by default.

Stocks finished the month of April breaking to new highs, with the S&P 500 rising above 1597. But May Day selling put a temporary hold on the bullish celebration that will certainly occur if the S&P 500 can make a clean break above psychological resistance at 1600. Was May Day the start of the usual “Sell in May and go away” practice?

The Dow Jones Transportation Index is up an impressive +16.7% year-to-date through Wednesday, as it runs interference for the broader Dow Industrials (up +10.8%) and tries to prod the bulls ahead.