Stocks continue to trade in a sideways technical consolidation just below their highs. With the start of earnings season underway, investors appear to be looking for a catalyst for some renewed buying that can launch a bullish breakout.

As stock traders take a break for Thanksgiving, all the major averages have hit new highs after breaking through psychological resistance levels, including the S&P 500 at 1800, Dow Jones Industrials at 16,000, and NASDAQ at 4000. Tech stocks were the big leaders on Wednesday after a strong earnings report from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ).

Stocks have shown some resiliency this week as they have made an attempt to recover from last week’s weakness, which was primarily due to the imminent threat of a US strike on Syria. Also, the senior portfolio managers are returning to the fold after taking some time off in late August, and they are likely seeing more opportunities than threats at the moment.

Central banks reiterated their commitment to supporting the global economy, and US investors showed their approval. The central banks are clearly prepared to keep the liquidity flowing for now, austerity be damned. Such statements are music to investors’ ears.

I was watching the ABC World News the other evening, and I was struck by the commercials they ran. The target demographic is obviously an older crowd (and since I was watching, I guess that includes me). Advertised products within the short 30-minute newscast addressed a variety of age-related ailments like low-T, erectile dysfunction, overactive bladder, constipation, hemorrhoids, and loose dentures.

Cash flush investors who have been waiting for a buying opportunity must be feeling like the guy standing outside the sold-out concert looking for someone willing to sell him a ticket. Stocks just won’t pull back much, despite a huge wall of worry that one might expect would put some quicksand under the bulls’ feet.

Stocks have been on a one-way train all month long. Now, as we approach Groundhog Day, the market appears to be having its own version of it as the Dow faces 14,000 and the S&P 500 struggles at 1500. As investors peer out above these levels, will they collectively see their shadow and retreat to safety for the next six weeks? Or will they bravely march forward into the clear blue skies to challenge the all-time highs from 2007?

Nervous Market Begins New Quarter

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems