By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

On Tuesday, March 21, the S&P 500 had its first 1%+ down-day of the year, and its first truly significant downward move in five months, falling -1.3% for the day, while the Russell 2000 small caps fell by an ominous -2.7%. For the S&P, it was the culmination of a -2.2% move over a 4-day period before stabilizing for a few days. But for the Dow, Monday of this week was its eighth straight losing day for the first time – its longest losing streak since 2011. The consensus bogeyman of course is the elusive passage of a new healthcare reconciliation bill and the fear that this exposes chinks in President’s Trump’s armor that may foreshadow delays in all his other fiscal stimulus proposals that have been so widely anticipated, and largely priced in. But I suggest focusing on the fundamental economic trends that are still solidly in place and not jump to conclusions about the future of external stimuli, some of which should enjoy broader bipartisan support. Maybe this is why the VIX has held defiantly below the important 15.0 level.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Investors remain cautious as Trump meets unexpected obstacles

Scott MartindaleBy Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Last week, in the wake of the President’s address to Congress, stocks rallied hard but ran into a brick wall at Dow 21,000, NASDAQ 5,900, and S&P 500 2,400. For the moment, optimism is high due to solid economic and corporate earnings reports along with the expectation that economic skids will soon be greased by business-friendly fiscal policies. But the proof is in the pudding, as the saying goes, and the constant distractions from a laser focus on the Trump agenda are becoming worrisome – not to mention the many uncertainties in Europe, North Korea’s missile launches, and China’s lowered growth projection as it tries to address its high debt build-up. Nevertheless, capital continues to flow into risk assets.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Frothy market awaits consolidation and new catalysts

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The year has begun with a continuation of the bullish optimism in equities. The new mood rewarding economically-sensitive market segments began with the big post-election rally – which was partly due to simply removing the election uncertainty and partly due to the “Trump Bump” and an expectation of a more business-friendly environment. Investors are playing a bit of wait-and-see regarding President Trump’s initial executive orders. Last week ended with a strong employment report and an executive order seeking to take the shackles off the banking industry (including dismantling of the Dodd-Frank Act and delay/review of the DOL Fiduciary Rule), which sent the Financial sector surging and led the Dow to close back above 20,000 and the NASDAQ Composite to new record highs, while the S&P500 struggles to breakout above the 2,300 level.

No doubt, the new Administration is shaking things up, as promised…and the left is pushing back hard, as promised. Nevertheless, I believe economic fundamentals are positive with a favorable environment for equities globally – especially fundamentals-based portfolios like Sabrient’s. I also like the prospects for small caps, European, and Japan.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Stocks eye new highs as Trump gets busy fulfilling campaign promises

You should sit in meditation for twenty minutes every day – unless you’re too busy;   - then you should sit for an hour.”--Old Zen adage

Batten down the hatches. The Congress critters are at it again. Read more about ETF Periscope: Riding the D.C.-to-Wall Street Volatility Express

daniel / Tag: VIX, VXX, DJIA, SPX, COMP, FDN, SOXX, FXL, QTEC, SMH, IGV / 0 Comments

It’s more fun to talk with someone who doesn’t use long difficult words but rather short easy words like What about lunch?” -- Winnie the Pooh

Washington is back doing what it seems to be best at these days, which is ramping up the national angst while it plays a Congressional game of “chicken.” Read more about ETF Periscope: Volatility Gains as Congress Showboats

daniel / Tag: VIX, VXX, FDN, SOXX, FXL, QTEC, SMH, IGV / 0 Comments


Wall Street seems to be in a bit of a holding pattern, not quite sure which way to go as it ponders how to respond to the possibility of another war, a domestic economy that seems to sputter out with regularity, and the inevitability of a tapering off of the massive bond-buying program that has goosed the equity market to record highs. Read more about ETF Periscope: Investors Unimpressed With Sound of War Drumbeat

daniel / Tag: USO, DJIA, COMP, SPX, VIX, FDN, SOXX, FXL, SMH, QTEC, IGV, VGK, NYMEX, Syria, volatility, Middle East, Crude Oil / 0 Comments

In terms of volatility, what a difference a month makes.

Back at the beginning of August, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) was hanging around its low point for the year, ending the week at just a shade below 12. But the worm seems to have turned these past four weeks as the VIX, inevitably referred to as the “fear index,” has climbed over 40% since then. Read more about ETF Periscope: Does the Jumpy VIX Indicate a Volatile September Ahead?

daniel / Tag: DJIA, COMP, SPX, VIX, VXX, FDN, SOXX, FXL, SMH, QTEC, IGV, VGK, CBOE, Chicago Board Options Exchange, BERNANKE, Yellen, Summers, FED / 0 Comments

Wall Street had its ear close to the ground towards the end of last week, listening closely to the chatter emanating out of the Fed-sponsored 2013 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. One sound they surely didn’t hear was the mellifluous musings of soon-to-be-out-the-door Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who chose not to attend for the first time since his inaugural year way back in 2006.

It is probably a safe assumption that his name did get bandied about by those who did attend the conference, consisting of many of the world’s central bankers and officers. Read more about ETF Periscope: Jackson Hole Still Makes Noise Without Bernanke

daniel / Tag: DJIA, COMP, SPX, FDN, SOXX, FXL, SMH, QTEC, IGV, VGK Fed, BERNANKE, Jackson Hole, Larry Summers, Janet Yellen, QE3 / 0 Comments

If you happened to blink last Thursday, you probably missed an event that contains powerful implications for investors and, well, pretty much anyone who has a stake in the economy. That’s when China’s Shanghai Composite Index experienced a 6% swing, going from a roughly 1% loss to a 5.6% gain. And this happened over the course of a mere two minutes.

To put that in perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would need to undergo a 900-point swing to experience a similar move.

In other words, it was a huge intraday move, but a staggering two-minute one. Read more about ETF Periscope: Chinese Flash Crash Reminder That Volatility Lurks Always

daniel / Tag: DJIA, COMP, SPX, FDN, SOXX, FXL, SMH, QTEC, IGV, VGK, Flash Crash, volatility, Shanghai Composite Index / 0 Comments

If the current economic forecast holds, the European Union (EU) is expected to announce next week that the Eurozone has finally emerged from its nearly three-year descent into recessionary territory. The 17-nation currency union should show that it has expanded its GDP by 0.2% over the course of the second quarter of 2013.

Hardly a staggering rise, but considering that growth has either stagnated or shrunk over the last several years, including the recent string of six straight quarters into negative territory, the gains are sure to be widely heralded. Read more about ETF Periscope: Eurozone Offers Siren Song to Investors

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