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Sumitomo Mitsui's (SMFG) plunge signals systemic risks in shadow banking as global credit faces rising pressure. Record inflows into S&P 500 ETFs (SPY, RSP) reveal market euphoria that ignores looming default threats and hidden leverage.

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Prediction markets signal an 82% probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. Such a blockade threatens 20% of global oil exports and could send Brent crude prices surging toward $108 per barrel.

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Gold prices rebounded 1% as Middle East tensions fueled safe-haven demand, though the metal remains on track for a 3% weekly loss. Technical indicators maintain a bullish bias, with analysts eyeing a move toward $5,480 if key resistance breaks.

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