Crude prices are seeing a quieter start to the week, following the rally we saw last week, as traders await fresh directional catalysts.

Warning of potential oversold conditions as pair hits 1.0722. Bearish trend persists amid US dollar strength and robust economic data, with focus on psychological support and resistance levels.

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Looking for upside into wave {iii} of 5 knowing equality of 5 vs. 1, which is often times a well respected Fib ratio between waves ones and fives, stands at 408$.

The S&P 500 index rallied again on Friday, reaching a new all-time high of 5,030.06, following record-breaking rallies in the AI/tech sector, with Microsoft and Nvidia leading the way up.

S&P 500 continued higher Friday, with only two decent selling attempts – first following the revised CPI spike, then in the first half of the regular session.

According to a Fitch Ratings report, a renewed emphasis on geopolitical and political risks in commodities markets, citing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, upcoming elections in various countries, and increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Traders are braced for plenty of volatility this week with a slew of key economic data due. The schedule kicks off tomorrow with the keenly awaited US CPI reading for January.

The USD/CAD forecast pointed down on Monday as investors continued to absorb Canada’s positive jobs report. On Friday, Statistics Canada revealed that employment rose nearly twice as much as analysts had expected.

The dollar declined slightly on Friday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics left the core US Consumer Price Index for Q4 unchanged at 3.3% y/y, which is dovish for Fed policy. In addition,

Flatness is the word with equity futures, the SPX are flat while the Nasdaq futures are slightly higher. The industrials are off modestly as the markets continue to grapple with mediocre earnings outlook from companies calling for a subdued 2024.

Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close.

The oil market has commenced the new year with prices remaining in a narrow range as concerns over fundamental weaknesses and the specter of an economic downturn continue to outweigh the geopolitical uncertainties at play.

The foreign exchange market is quiet. The Lunar New Year holiday shut most Asian markets. That, coupled with the light news in Europe, have served to keep the dollar in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies.

Crude oil has been softer amid some optimism around the Israel-Hamas conflict. Speculators trimmed their net longs last week as supply risks in the Middle East have eased for now.

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Markets are dominated by rising US stock markets breaking to new all-time highs, with all three major indices reaching new record prices Friday.

XLI ended cycle from the 109.9 low as 5 waves structure. The ETF is currently giving us pull back against the 109.9 low.  Equal legs area is already reached at 112.38-111.54. 

Stock Futures Stability: U.S. stock futures remain stable as the market anticipates a week filled with crucial economic data releases and a series of corporate earnings reports.

Small-cap earnings are coming in much weaker than expected when these companies began reporting the fourth quarter – or even when the December quarter began.