The Nasdaq just breached the lower edge of its expected move. The Dow is pushing the upper edge of its expected move. That divergence tells you everything about what's happening right now.

Although heavy duty truck sales rebounded somewhat in December, up from their post-pandemic low of 336,000 annualized in November to 392,000, even on a three month average basis they are down -3.4% from their peak in 2023.

+22K vs. consensus of +46K, down from December (rev’d) +37K. Alternative business cycle indicators incorporating these figures show the labor market growth at near zero: