Interesting Combination Today: Gold, the long bond yield, and the dollar are all up strongly.

​​​​​​​Can we blame scary seasonality for today’s declines, or might the blame lie elsewhere? As with most things market-related, the explanation incorporates several factors.

Lots of talk of tariff “uncertainty” through Tuesday. There is no uncertainty. Tariffs remain and will remain.

​​​​​​​Growth in the U.S. is ebbing, and it is likely only the AI boom that is keeping us from recording a small recession.

Stocks dumped with some downward conviction from the overnight, but managed to catch a bounce off the bottom in the late afternoon. 

Today’s GDPNow release takes that number down to 1.7%, a slowdown from Q2.

Even with Monday’s correction, small caps continue to see rotation.  

The appeals court’s ruling that Trump’s tariffs were largely illegal suddenly makes “refund risk” real.

ADP private sector payroll growth has been below the historical average for the last 6 months now.

Block isn’t just a payment processor anymore, it has evolved into a full-scale fintech ecosystem powering peer-to-peer payments, merchant solutions, banking, lending, Bitcoin transactions, and more.

U.S. Dollar gets bid as traders flee risk assets amid Fed pressure, soaring bond yields and tariff disputes.

Gold is signaling that the next inflationary storm is about to arrive.