It's been quite the first full working week of 2026, starting with the remarkable narrative unfolding out of Venezuela, and was always going to culminate with the US payrolls report that has been laced with as many questions as answers.

Tech stocks led the way lower today, with the S&P 500 maintaining an anchor to stocks' recent gains. Gold bounced. Silver gave some back.VIX continues to creep up slowly.

We discuss why markets may be entering a period of reckoning, as debt, geopolitics, and hard math collide.

As expected, the VIX 1-day rose to around 14, although that was somewhat lower than anticipated, given that it has typically moved into the mid-to-high teens in similar situations.

The one index to watch for the coming couple of weeks is the Semiconductor Index. The gains to new highs is narrowing the retracements zones with 5,400s coming into play more as a pullback target.

The largest gains in silver historically come late in the cycle, and the setup now suggests that phase has begun.