Scott MartindaleBy Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

In late May, the major US stock indexes finally eclipsed those pesky psychological levels and hit new highs, and this week they have managed to maintain the breakout even in the face of James Comey’s Congressional testimony and the British election, not to mention more saber-rattling from North Korea. The S&P 500 has held above 2,400, and the Dow has maintained the 21,000 level. The ultra-strong and Tech-heavy Nasdaq regained 6,300 and the Russell 2000 small caps moved back above 1,400 after both briefly pulling back below to test support early in the week. They both showed notable strength on Thursday after the James Comey testimony. Such backing-and-filling and technical consolidation was inevitable given that the proverbial “rubber band” was stretched so tight, with price rising well above the moving averages.

With the strength in Nasdaq, it should come as no surprise that the Technology sector has been by far the top performing sector, up about +22% year to date, while Energy has struggled, falling about -15% YTD. Notably, on Wednesday, oil prices fell more than 4% due to an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model maintains its bullish bias. Volatility remains historically low, economic conditions continue to improve, and overall, the climate seems quite favorable for risk assets like equities – particularly dividend payers, small caps, and GARP stocks (i.e., growth companies among all caps selling at attractive forward PEG ratios). Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Stocks resume technical breakout despite political turmoil at home and abroad

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Stocks continue to hold up well, encouraged by improving global fundamentals and a solid Q1 corporate earnings season. However, at the moment most of the major US market indices are struggling at key psychological levels of technical resistance that have held before, including Dow at 21,000, S&P 500 at 2,400, and Russell 2000 at 1,400. Only the Tech-heavy NASDAQ seems utterly undeterred by the 6,100 level, after having no problem blasting through the 6,000 level with ease last month and setting record highs almost daily. Perhaps the supreme strength in Tech will be able to lead the broader market through this tough resistance level. Every time it appears stocks are on the verge of a major correction, they catch a bid at an important technical support level. In other words, cautious optimism remains the MO of investors – despite weighty geopolitical risks and, here at home, furious political fighting at a level of viciousness I didn’t think possible in the U.S.

There is simply no denying the building momentum in broad global economic expansion, and any success in implementing domestic fiscal stimulus will just add even more fuel to this burgeoning fire. That’s not to say that we won’t see a nasty selloff at some point this year, but I think such an occurrence would have a news-driven (or Black Swan) trigger, and likely would ultimately serve as a broad-based buying opportunity.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model has returned to a bullish bias even though stocks now struggle at strong psychological resistance levels.  Read more.... Read more about Sector Detector: Bulls gather conviction, led by Tech, as uncertainties are lifted

Scott MartindaleGiven all the geopolitical drama and worrisome news headlines – ranging from tensions with Russia and North Korea to “Brexit 2.0” and “Frexit” to uncertainties of Trump’s fiscal stimulus to the looming debt ceiling – it’s no wonder stocks have stalled for the past several weeks. Especially troubling is the notable underperformance since March 1 in small caps and transports. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals both globally and domestically are still solid. Global growth appears to be on a positive trend that could persist for the next couple of years, and Q1 earnings season should reflect impressive year-over-year corporate earnings growth, although not without its disappointments – as we already have seen in bellwethers like Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and International Business Machines (IBM).

I continue to like the prospects for US equities for the balance of the year. I expect breadth will be solid, correlations will stay low, and dispersion high such that risk assets continue to look attractive, including high-quality dividend payers and growth stocks, particularly small caps, which I think will ultimately outperform this year despite their recent weakness. All of this bodes well for stock-pickers.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, although the sector rotation model has, at least temporarily, moved to a neutral stance as the short-term technical picture has become cloudy. But after the pro-EU election results in France on Sunday, stocks may be ready for an upside breakout, no matter what Trump accomplishes in this final week of his first 100 days on the job.  Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Rankings remain bullish as a promising Q1 earnings season begins

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

On Tuesday, March 21, the S&P 500 had its first 1%+ down-day of the year, and its first truly significant downward move in five months, falling -1.3% for the day, while the Russell 2000 small caps fell by an ominous -2.7%. For the S&P, it was the culmination of a -2.2% move over a 4-day period before stabilizing for a few days. But for the Dow, Monday of this week was its eighth straight losing day for the first time – its longest losing streak since 2011. The consensus bogeyman of course is the elusive passage of a new healthcare reconciliation bill and the fear that this exposes chinks in President’s Trump’s armor that may foreshadow delays in all his other fiscal stimulus proposals that have been so widely anticipated, and largely priced in. But I suggest focusing on the fundamental economic trends that are still solidly in place and not jump to conclusions about the future of external stimuli, some of which should enjoy broader bipartisan support. Maybe this is why the VIX has held defiantly below the important 15.0 level.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Investors remain cautious as Trump meets unexpected obstacles

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Fear of missing out is suddenly the prevailing sentiment, overwhelming the previously dominant fear of an imminent selloff. I think this is due to a combination of: 1) uncertainty being lifted regarding the election, 2) domestic optimism about the US economy and business-friendly fiscal policies, 3) foreign investors seeing the US as the favored investment destination, 4) the expectation of rising inflation and interest rates rotating capital out of bonds and into stocks, and 5) a cautious but still accommodative Fed. Now that investors can focus on the many positive fundamentals instead of the news headlines, we are seeing healthy market breadth and diverse leadership led by value and small cap stocks rather than just the mega-cap growth stocks (e.g., “FANG”). Such sentiment has been a boon for fundamentals-based portfolios like Sabrient’s. But of course, everyone wants to know, how much further can this rally go? And what happens when it inevitably hits a wall?

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look slightly bullish as post-election adjustments to sell-side EPS estimates are gaining traction in the model, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read more about Sector Detector: What’s next for the post-election rally and rotation?

smartindale / Tag: ETF, sectors, iShares, volatility, S&P 500, SectorCast, technology, healthcare, Financial, energy, SPY, VIX, IYF, iyw, IYJ, IYZ, IYC, IYK, IYH, IDU, IYM, IYE, SOXX, RWW, SLX, XHS, MORT, RDVY, RYF, WBIF, USD, FDM, SYV, BBH, KBWB / 0 Comments

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Proving to be a better magician than either David Blaine or Criss Angel, Donald Trump pulled a giant rabbit out his hat with his improbable victory to become President-elect of the United States. But even those few prescient souls who predicted a Trump victory couldn’t foresee the immediate market rally. Everyone thought that the market preferred (and had priced in) a Clinton victory. But they were wrong. Small caps in particular have been on a tear.

I said in my previous article on 10/31 that I expected the Russell 2000 small caps to resume their outperformance once the election results had a chance to shake out. Going forward, I expect a greater focus on positive fundamentals to permeate investors’ psyche, leading once again to healthier market breadth, diverse leadership, and higher prices. I expect Trump’s policies, along with a mostly cooperative Republican-controlled Congress, to be mildly inflationary and favorable for business investment and earnings growth, with certain market segments that had been targeted by the Democrats now set to strengthen. This already has become a positive for Sabrient’s fundamentals-based portfolios.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look neutral as adjustments to sell-side forward estimates based on the election are only starting to trickle into our model (even though investors haven’t waited around for them), but the sector rotation model now suggests a bullish stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Abrupt rotation underway in response to surprise Trump victory

smartindale / Tag: ETF, sectors, iShares, volatility, S&P 500, SectorCast, technology, healthcare, Financial, energy, SPY, VIX, IYF, iyw, IYJ, IYZ, IYC, IYK, IYH, IDU, IYM, IYE, IGN, BBH, PUW, MORT, RDVY, HUSE, FXL, KBWB / 0 Comments

Scott Martindale
By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

It is encouraging to see that Q3 earnings season is looking a bit better than expected and is on track to produce positive earnings growth for the first time since Q1 2015 (that was six straight quarters of negative year-over-year growth!) – and on positive revenue growth, to boot. Entering earnings season, Wall Street’s mood had turned negative after an expectation earlier in the year that Q3 would be the big turnaround quarter, so the upside surprises so far have been most welcome.

On the other hand, stocks appear to be enduring something of a “stealth correction” or risk-off activity, which has been impacting small caps much more than the larges. After seven months of expansion (essentially from Feb 11 until Sept 22), market breadth has been shrinking over the past month, as news headlines take the stage away from fundamentals, which is not surprising given the impending election. I think we will see elevated volatility in advance of election day, but after rationalizing what it all means (no matter what result transpires), I expect the market to stabilize – at least until the December 14 FOMC meeting. From a technical standpoint, the proverbial spring remains tightly coiled for a significant move. But even if the initial move is down, I would consider it a buying opportunity, as I think investors will return to a focus on fundamentals, leading once again to healthier market breadth and diverse leadership, with higher prices in our future.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look relatively bullish, although the sector rotation model still suggests a neutral stance. Read on.... Read more about Sector Detector: Earnings looking good and bullish rankings hold steady, but news is now trumping fundamentals

smartindale / Tag: ETF, sectors, iShares, volatility, S&P 500, SectorCast, technology, healthcare, Financial, energy, SPY, VIX, IYF, iyw, IYJ, IYZ, IYC, IYK, IYH, IDU, IYM, IYE, FXL, PJP, RYF, MORT, RYT, BIZD, JHMT / 0 Comments

Headlines continue to dominate the trading landscape, perpetuating a news-driven trader’s market rather than allowing a healthier valuation-driven investor’s market to return to favor. After all, that’s what stock market investing is supposed to be about. Narrow market breadth and daily stock price gyrations have been driven primarily by three headline generators -- oil price, the Fed’s monetary policy, and China growth. Sure, there were many other important news items, notably the sinister course of Islamic terrorism. Read more about Sector Detector: Headlines continue to control market direction as valuation models languish

Scott MartindaleStocks were able to leverage some optimistic news and dovish words from the Fed to take another stab at an upside breakout attempt last week. Although readers have sometimes accused me of being a permabull, I am really a realist, and the reality is that the slogans like “The trend is your friend” and “Don’t fight the Fed” are truisms. And they have worked. Read more about Sector Detector: Bulls leverage hopeful news to launch a tepid breakout attempt