Big Earnings Week Starts Off Slowly

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

Nervous Market Begins New Quarter

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

Seeking a New Catalyst

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

The market sputtered into negative territory today (Monday), with the S&P 500 closing at 1142 (-0.57%). Still, the index is well above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Nothing seems to be strong enough to lift the market out of its doldrums.  Not the shiny corporate earnings announcements from Wal-Mart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD).  Not the exciting merger talks between BHP Billiton (BHP) & Potash (POT) or between Intel (INTC) & McAfee (MFE). Not the slightly improved global economic picture.

As we wind down the summer doldrums, are we heading toward another low-volume August?  Today was one of the lowest volume sessions of the year on the NYSE. Kids are returning to school in some parts of the country already, and many portfolio managers and traders will begin returning to their desks. But what they are finding in the market this week is quite different than they would have seen last week.

Our thundering herd of baby bulls struggled mightily last week to stay clear of that gloomy channel, and at one time the S&P 500 threatened to cross back under its 50-day moving average, but it ended the week about where it started.

The abundance of news last week -- most with a positive slant -- finally boosted the S&P 500 out of the Channel of Gloom in which it was mired for so long. Not only did the S&P 500 break out of the channel, but it is now threatening the 200-day moving average, having surpassed the 50-day MA last week.

Tipping Point Deja Vu

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

One hesitates to put too much emphasis on any given week when discussing market trends, but this week could be the tipping point for the current market. Despite the S&P 500's 50-point gain last week on virtually no news at all, the fact remains that it is still more than 12% below the April 23rd high of 1217 and still has not broken out of the downward channel that began on April 26.

I hope you enjoyed the Fourth of July fireworks on Sunday, because there might not be much to celebrate on Wall Street this week.

Last week we warned that if most of the impending economic releases were negative, the market would likely fall worse than it did the week before.  And that’s what happened.  In fact, it dropped approximately twice as much as the week before. (It doesn’t feel so good to be right.)