Portfolio managers returning from their summer holidays have apparently liked what they’ve heard from the central banks. Although total volume remains modest, U.S. stock indexes have hit new highs. The S&P 500 finally busted out of its 3-month-long bullish rising channel.

The Fed has enacted QE3 with an indefinite time deadline. Europe continues to make progress after Draghi’s bond buying announcement and Chancellor Merkel’s reaffirmation. The market has noticed and responded with a strong upward movement in each of the past two weeks.  

As we head into the homestretch of summer and the Labor Day holiday weekend, investors are anxious to see if next week brings elevated volume and the reinforcements to help the bulls break out. However, there’s no doubt that the bears are lurking in the wings to drive stocks down hard, given the right scenario.

Volume has elevated somewhat this week, as Wednesday saw more trading volume than we have seen since the beginning of the month—likely due to the release of the FOMC minutes (both in anticipation and aftermath). In any case, equity holders have been loath to sell. Mild intraday weakness continues to be met with buying.

Markets have been signaling a willingness to look past the deluge of troubling news and move higher. This is bullish behavior. On Tuesday, market psychology displayed its positivity as initial weakness on bad news was quickly reversed. Rather than demanding that the Fed initiate a QE3, investors seem to be happier with indications from the Fed that the economy might be able to muddle along without it.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rallied hard in the last 20 minutes to finish right near the flat line, but it still closed with a fractional loss, which makes it the fifth straight loss since last week’s Independence Day patriotic rally. It is now testing technical support at a level of prior-resistance-turned-support.

Stocks have rallied since Friday, largely due to some promising developments out of Europe toward addressing their sovereign debt issues and shaky banks. As I said last week, global investors hoped for a sign of commitment from EU leaders at their latest summit to stimulate growth, create a banking union, and debt mutualization (e.g., Eurobonds). What they got was pretty close. And U.S.

I don’t know about you, but I’m getting a lot of auto-response emails from folks in the investment world who are on vacation these days. Yes, the summer doldrums have set in, often leaving junior portfolio managers—without seniority, vacation time, school-age children, or much in the way of discretionary authority—to mind the store.

Greece’s electorate has chosen to stay in the new world rather than retreat to the old. And the Federal Reserve has backed up its words regarding liquidity and accommodation to support economic recovery. That about sums up the latest news, which has helped the technical picture. Stocks have been able to break out of a holding pattern and continue the June rebound after a dismal May.

During the month of May, the Dow Industrials managed only five positive days, but June has offered up some recovery so far. Despite the persistently negative news we are inundated with each day—creating real trepidation among investors—there are actually a lot of promising signs here in the U.S., and the technical picture seems to have entered a holding pattern as investors await signs of improving stability elsewhere.