Scott Martindaleby Scott Martindale
  President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The market this year has been oscillating between fear and optimism, risk-off and risk-on. Until 8/27/19, risk-off defensive sentiment was winning, but since that date a risk-on sentiment has taken hold, and the historic divergence favoring secular growth, low-volatility and momentum factors, defensive sectors, and large caps (i.e., late-stage economic cycle behavior) over cyclical growth, value and high-beta factors, cyclical sectors, and small-mid caps (i.e., expansionary cycle behavior) continues to reverse, as fickle investors have become optimistic about at least a partial resolution to the trade war (including the lifting of tariffs), an improving outlook for 2020-21 corporate earnings, and resurgent capital investment. Investors have moved from displaying tepid and fleeting signs of risk-on rotation to full-blown bullish enthusiasm and reluctance to sell in a fear of missing out (FOMO), even though the short-term technical picture has become overbought.

The late-August risk-on rotation came in the nick of time. Last year at that same time of the year, the S&P 500 was marching higher until peaking on 9/20/18, but it was doing so on the backs of defensive sectors along with secular-growth Tech mega-caps, and I was opining at the time that the rally would fizzle if there wasn’t some rotation into the risk-on cyclicals and small-mid caps – which as you know didn’t happen, leading to the Q4 selloff. But, happily, this year has played out quite differently.

Nevertheless, a lot of successful fundamentals-based strategies (including powerhouse quant firm AQR Capital, discussed below) really took it on the chin for the roughly 14-18 months preceding 8/27, ostensibly due to fear that a “late-cycle” economy was on the verge of recession. And indeed it was becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy, as the dominos seemed to be falling one by one:  escalating trade wars creating uncertainty leading to a global manufacturing slowdown, a hold-off in corporate capital spending, and negative interest rates overseas, which pushed global capital into US debt, which temporarily inverted the yield curve, which brought out the doomsaying pundits – all of which was beginning to negatively impact the previously-bulletproof consumer sentiment that had been carrying US GDP growth.

But it was all based on false pretenses, in my view, and investors now seem to be convinced that the bottom is in for the industrial cycle and the corporate earnings recession, and particularly for prices of value/cyclical stocks with solid fundamentals. Results haven’t been as bad as feared, and some of the macro clouds are parting. Ultimately, stock prices are driven by earnings expectations and interest rates (for discounted cash flow valuation), and as the external obstacles hindering the free market are lessened or removed, the outlook brightens. And when investors focus on the fundamentals rather than the latest tweet, CNN headline, or single economic number taken out of context, it bodes well for Sabrient’s value-tilted GARP (growth at a reasonable price) portfolios, which of course includes our flagship Baker’s Dozen.

In this periodic update, I provide a detailed market commentary, offer my technical analysis of the S&P 500, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and serve up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look neutral to me, while the longer-term technical picture remains bullish, and our sector rotation model retains a solidly bullish posture. Read on….

I don’t know about you, but I’m getting a lot of auto-response emails from folks in the investment world who are on vacation these days. Yes, the summer doldrums have set in, often leaving junior portfolio managers—without seniority, vacation time, school-age children, or much in the way of discretionary authority—to mind the store.

smartindale / Tag: CYH, ETF, Eurozone, GILD, IDU, iShares, IVR, IYC, IYE, IYH, IYI, IYJ, IYK, IYM, iyw, IYZ, linkedin, NLY, ORCL, sectors, SPY, STX, VIX / 0 Comments

Despite last week’s little rally, April showers have dampened market. While it didn’t build into a torrential downpour, it steadily showered investors with worse-than-expected economic data, including last week’s dreadful Durable Goods Report (-4.2% compared to last month’s +1.9%), continued but minor increases in initial jobless claims throughout April, and a disappointing initial Q1 estimate of GDP (+2.2% compared the previous quarter’s +3.0%).

david / Tag: AAPL, AGCO, EWP, GOOG, GS, GTE, IEV, ORCL, PAAS, STX, VGK / 0 Comments

Technology led today’s robust rally as the dollar continued to weaken. Financials, especially banks, remained strong the first three days of last week then fell to profit-taking on the final two days, ending down a little more than -0.5% for the week.  Today, that sector regained all of that loss and advanced an extra 25 basis points to reach near multi-year highs, although it is still more than 50% off its early 2007 high.

david / Tag: acn, DFS, DISCA, DKS, FDX, NKE, ORCL, TIF, VLO, VXX / 0 Comments

Bulls are trying mightily to ensure the Santa rally holds into year-end and close the year in the positive, as all eyes remain on Europe.

smartindale / Tag: AAPL, ETF, IDU, IYC, IYE, IYH, IYI, IYJ, IYK, IYM, iyw, IYZ, linkedin, MG, NBIX, ORCL, sector-rotation, sectors, SPY, UTHR, VIX / 0 Comments

Okay, Virginia, Maybe There is a Santa Claus . . .


david / Tag: AAPL, CF, HFC, ORCL, sectors, SHLD, UTHR / 0 Comments

Like the nice employer who never fails to pay a Christmas bonus every year, Santa seems bound and determined to give bulls the year-end rally they have come to expect. But bears aren’t going away quietly—although bulls got some unintended help from the bears with Tuesday’s short-covering-fueled rally.

 

smartindale / Tag: ANIK, ETF, IDU, IYC, IYE, IYH, IYI, IYJ, IYK, IYM, iyw, IYZ, linkedin, MNTA, ORCL, RBCAA, sector-rotation, sectors, SPY, WRLD / 0 Comments

Market Surges to 2-Month High--Why?

By David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

david / Tag: AAPL, BAC, C, CAT, CI, GS, HS, HUM, JAZZ, ORCL, RNOW, SNX, VXX, WFC, WNR / 0 Comments

david trainerHaving too many choices can be intimidating. And there are definitely lots of choices when it comes to ETFs. For example, in the equity market alone, there 30+ technology sector ETFs, 35 "large cap value," and 20 financial ETFs. A very healthy selection abounds for every category of ETF.

dtrainer / Tag: AAPL, acn, FTQ, FXL, GOOG, IGM, IGN, IGV, iyw, MSFT, MTK, ORCL, PNQI, RYT, SKYY, SOXL, SOXX, TYH, USD, VGT, XLK, XSD / 0 Comments

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