Scott MartindaleOverall, earnings reports have continued to beat the low bar of expectations.

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Scott MartindaleWe are in the thick of earnings season, and so far the general trend has been as anticipated: modest if any top-line growth and more earnings beats than misses (albeit versus a low bar). But forward guidance has been the big decider on how the stock trades post-earnings, and the message has been decidedly mixed, as many companies have had to reduce guidance or otherwise failed to make the grade in other important growth metrics.

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Scott MartindaleSmall caps, mid-caps, Financials, Telecom, and Consumer Discretionary were among the market segments that hit new highs this week, even as bearish sentiment and short interest have risen, and there is still plenty of idle cash on the sidelines looking for a home.

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Scott MartindaleEarnings season is now officially underway, but the Fed is still holding the limelight, as traders anxiously awaited on Wednesday the FOMC minutes from the June 18/19 meeting. Although several members are pushing to begin tapering off this fall on asset purchases (bonds and mortgage-backed securities), which spooked the markets, in fact it now appears that the controlling opinion is that the U.S.

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Scott MartindaleI suspect there is no greater example of “summer doldrums” than the week surrounding the Fourth of July, especially when the holiday falls mid-week. From my standpoint, I certainly have received my share of “out of office” auto-responses on emails. For bullish investors, this is usually a time for caution, as any apparently dominant psychology of the market can be misleading. For bearish traders, it’s hard to get much momentum going.

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Scott MartindaleThe world has been watching every peep, sniffle, or innuendo associated with any voting member of the FOMC. What is the future of the latest in their ongoing market manipulation, in which money is printed to buy bonds to hold down interest rates, spur corporate borrowing, and artificially inflate stocks? Lately, that’s all investors have cared about.

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Scott MartindaleStock investors are protecting gains and holding off on deploying cash as concerns abound about central banks, including the Federal Reserve, tapering off on their stimulus programs, i.e., money printing. Low-interest policies and quantitative easing have been the driving force for economic recovery while pushing return-hungry investors into equities by default.

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Scott MartindaleHere in Santa Barbara, we refer to the annual summer ritual of heavy marine layer engulfing the coastline for much of the day as the “June gloom.” It can be frustrating to beach-going visitors since there are otherwise no clouds, and the inland areas are brilliantly sunny.

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Scott MartindaleCentral banks reiterated their commitment to supporting the global economy, and US investors showed their approval. The central banks are clearly prepared to keep the liquidity flowing for now, austerity be damned. Such statements are music to investors’ ears.

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Scott MartindaleThe market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.

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