This year, the S&P 500 has greatly underperformed its average 18% return that it historically provides during the third year of a Presidential election cycle. But then, a lot seems to be different this year as correlations across most asset classes are high and prices are buffeted more by news events than fundamentals (which has made stock picking quite challenging).

The Fed’s decision to not raise the fed funds rate at this time was ultimately taken by the market as a no-confidence vote on our economic health, which just added to the fear and uncertainty that was already present. Rather than cheering the decision, market participants took the initial euphoric rally as a selling opportunity, and the proverbial wall of worry grew a bit higher.

Today brought three better than expected economic releases from Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, and Personal Income. The ISM figure was quite unexpected and Personal Income was well above expectations.  If we ignore for a moment that the Final GDP reading for Q4 was lowered on Friday (which may or may not have been primarily caused by severe weather), we have had a week of better than expected economic numbers.

david / Tag: ARRS, BX, DAL / 0 Comments

From the Fed, from Congress and President, and from Europe for starters. Chairman Bernanke may give us the former as he testifies on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.  Congress must act by Friday over the sequestration issues.  And Italy could’ve helped a bit today if its election resulted in a more stable government, although that does appear to be happening.

david / Tag: DAL, AAPL, ABBV, TYN, VIX, VXX / 0 Comments

The market surprised us this morning with a strong performance. It could be supported by confidence in Housing, as existing sales were better-than-expected and downright positive (stay tuned for more numbers from housing sector tomorrow). Or it could be a technical move off of support at 1343 for S&P 500, which would be nice if the market recognized at healthy 10% sell-off and is now moving forward.

david / Tag: DAL, TXT, STI / 0 Comments

Here we are again wondering what the market wants.  Today, it clearly wasn’t Technology stocks, as various issues dragged both Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) lower.

david / Tag: AAPL, CHMT, DAL, DFS, EWP, financials, GOOG, HFC, IEV, JPM, S&P 500, STX, technology, VGK, WFC / 0 Comments

Quintuple Witching Economic Indicator Week

david / Tag: CMI, CVI, DAL, ECPG, VXX / 0 Comments

Earnings Season is the Key

by David Brown, Chief Market Strategist, Sabrient Systems

david / Tag: AAPL, C, DAL, EEFT, GE, GOOG, GS, IGM, MEAS, MERC MCF, sectors / 0 Comments