by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Many market commentators have been in a prolonged tizzy, warning of an inevitable selloff to come. And indeed we finally got one, with a huge spike in volatility. A climate of low inflation and structurally low interest rates has meant less discounting of future corporate earnings, which has allowed for higher enterprise values and stock prices. But when inflation fears suddenly popped up, investors feared an imminent repricing of equities at lower multiples. As I wrote at the start of the year, I expected some renewed volatility and compression in valuation multiples to occur during 2018, but I sure didn’t expect it to happen quite so soon. However, I also said that a correction would be healthy, and that it won’t necessarily be as deep of a selloff as so many investors have feared – and I stand by that prediction.

So, what is going on here? I think there were a few catalysts. First, the dollar has been plummeting on inflation worries, chasing away global fixed income investors and spiking yields, which put elevated equity valuations into question. Second, a healthy technical correction from January’s parabolic uptrend in stock prices spiked volatility to such a degree that the inverse VIX ETF/ETNs imploded, revealing structural problems with some of these products that not only spooked institutional investors but also triggered some abrupt changes to tactical equity exposures in their algorithmic trading models. And then we heard some FOMC members making statements implying that perhaps there is no longer a “Fed Put” supporting the market. It’s no wonder the long-expected correction finally (and quite suddenly) came about.

Given that the price chart had gone parabolic, it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that volatility raised its ugly head, with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) briefly spiking above 50, much like an overstretched rubber band snaps back, and with sector correlations rising sharply. Nevertheless, I still expect solidly positive performance in the broad market indices by year end, although significantly lower than last year’s +22% performance on the S&P 500, and perhaps only in the high single digits. I also believe that heightened volatility and some compression in the broad market valuation multiples will lead to greater market breadth and lower sector correlations as investors pick their spots outside of the mega-caps (or passive index investing) and seek out higher returns in stocks that display strong growth prospects at a reasonable price (i.e., GARP) – with realistic potential for gains in the 15-25% range (or even higher).

In this periodic update, I provide a market commentary, offer my technical analysis of the S&P 500, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and serve up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model moved to a neutral bias in response to the market turbulence. Read on....

by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The S&P 500 finished 2017 by completing an unusual feat. Not only was the index up +22% (total return), but every single month of the year saw positive performance on a total return basis, and in fact, the index is on a 14-month winning streak (Note: the previous record of 15 straight was set back in 1959!). So, as you might expect, volatility was historically low all year, with the VIX displaying an average daily closing value of 11 (versus a “fear threshold” of 15 and a “panic threshold” of 20). But some of 2017’s strength was due to expansion in valuation multiples in anticipation of tax reform and lower effective tax rates boosting existing earnings, not to mention incentives for repatriating overseas cash balances, expansion, and capex.

Sector correlations also remained low all year, while performance dispersion remained high, both of which are indications of a healthy market, as investors focus on fundamentals and pick their spots for investing – rather than just trade risk-on/risk-off based on the daily news headlines and focus on a narrow group of mega-cap technology firms (like 2015), or stay defensive (like 1H2016). And Sabrient’s fundamentals-based portfolios have thrived in this environment.

Now that the biggest tax overhaul in over 30 years is a reality, investors may do some waiting-and-watching regarding business behavior under the new rules and the impact on earnings, and there may be some normalization in valuation multiples. In other words, we may not see 20% gains in the S&P 500 during 2018, but I still expect a solidly positive year, albeit with some elevated volatility.

In this periodic update, I provide a market outlook, conduct a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model also maintains its bullish bias. Read on....

by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Stocks are rocketing to new highs almost every day. Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com (AMZN) saw his net worth exceed $100 billion. Bonds are still strong (and interest rates low). Real estate pricing is robust. DaVinci painting sells for $450 million. Bitcoin – having no intrinsic value other than a frenzy of speculative demand – trades above $11,000 (up from $1,000 on January 1), with surprising enthusiasm brewing among institutional investors, including some of the wealthiest and most successful, and with futures and derivatives on cryptocurrencies in the pipeline. (By the way, if you are afraid of a global internet crash disrupting your holdings, fear not, as there is a bitcoin satellite accessible by dish.)

Investors are desperately seeking the next hot area before it gets bid up. (Maybe marijuana stocks are next, in anticipation of broader legalization.) Indeed, central bank monetary policies have created significant asset inflation, with cheap money from around the globe burning a hole in investors’ pockets. So now it’s high time to invite to the party some of the huddled masses (who don’t have direct access to the Fed’s largesse) – through fiscal stimulus. We are already getting some of that in the form of regulatory reform, which the Administration has largely done on its own. But the eagerly anticipated big-hitter is tax reform, which requires the cooperation of Congress. And despite the Republicans’ inability to come to consensus on anything else, investors are already bidding up equities in anticipation of the House and Senate reconciling a tax bill that becomes law – so expect to see a big correction if it fails.

The promise of regulatory and tax reform have kept me positive all year on mid and small caps as the primary beneficiaries, and I remain so now more than ever. In addition, they offer a way to better leverage continued economic expansion and rising equity prices, particularly those that supply (or that seek to take away a small piece of a growing pie from) the dominant mega caps. Moreover, as the valuations for the mega-cap Technology names in particular grow ever more elevated, we are starting to see a passing of the baton to smaller players and other market segments that display more attractive forward valuation multiples.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings still look bullish, while the sector rotation model also maintains its bullish bias. A steady and improving global growth outlook and a persistently low interest rate environment continues to foster low volatility and an appetite for risk assets. Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

The year has begun with a continuation of the bullish optimism in equities. The new mood rewarding economically-sensitive market segments began with the big post-election rally – which was partly due to simply removing the election uncertainty and partly due to the “Trump Bump” and an expectation of a more business-friendly environment. Investors are playing a bit of wait-and-see regarding President Trump’s initial executive orders. Last week ended with a strong employment report and an executive order seeking to take the shackles off the banking industry (including dismantling of the Dodd-Frank Act and delay/review of the DOL Fiduciary Rule), which sent the Financial sector surging and led the Dow to close back above 20,000 and the NASDAQ Composite to new record highs, while the S&P500 struggles to breakout above the 2,300 level.

No doubt, the new Administration is shaking things up, as promised…and the left is pushing back hard, as promised. Nevertheless, I believe economic fundamentals are positive with a favorable environment for equities globally – especially fundamentals-based portfolios like Sabrient’s. I also like the prospects for small caps, European, and Japan.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Investors continue to be sanguine about the economy and are reluctant to lighten up on stocks, even as we enter the New Year on the heels of a big post-election run-up, perhaps for fear of missing out on continued upside. Rather than fearing the uncertainty of a new (and maverick) administration, they instead have an expectation of a more business-friendly environment, fiscal stimulus, and a desirably higher level of inflation under Trump and a Republican-controlled congress. Stimulus likely would include lower corporate and personal taxes, immediate expensing of capital investment (rather than depreciating over time), incentives to repatriate offshore-held cash, reduced regulatory burdens, and infrastructure spending programs. Longer term, we also might see more favorable international trade deals and a freer market for healthcare coverage. Even the Fed is finally admitting that monetary stimulus alone can’t do the trick.

As the New Year gets underway, the technical picture remains strong, as the Dow is gathering strength to challenge ominous psychological round-number resistance at 20,000 and market breadth is impressive, led by small caps and value stocks. I believe we have a favorable environment for US equities going forward – especially fundamentals-based portfolios, like Sabrient’s annual Baker’s Dozen.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings still look bullish, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance. Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Fear of missing out is suddenly the prevailing sentiment, overwhelming the previously dominant fear of an imminent selloff. I think this is due to a combination of: 1) uncertainty being lifted regarding the election, 2) domestic optimism about the US economy and business-friendly fiscal policies, 3) foreign investors seeing the US as the favored investment destination, 4) the expectation of rising inflation and interest rates rotating capital out of bonds and into stocks, and 5) a cautious but still accommodative Fed. Now that investors can focus on the many positive fundamentals instead of the news headlines, we are seeing healthy market breadth and diverse leadership led by value and small cap stocks rather than just the mega-cap growth stocks (e.g., “FANG”). Such sentiment has been a boon for fundamentals-based portfolios like Sabrient’s. But of course, everyone wants to know, how much further can this rally go? And what happens when it inevitably hits a wall?

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review Sabrient’s weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look slightly bullish as post-election adjustments to sell-side EPS estimates are gaining traction in the model, and the sector rotation model continues to suggest a bullish stance.

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Proving to be a better magician than either David Blaine or Criss Angel, Donald Trump pulled a giant rabbit out his hat with his improbable victory to become President-elect of the United States. But even those few prescient souls who predicted a Trump victory couldn’t foresee the immediate market rally. Everyone thought that the market preferred (and had priced in) a Clinton victory. But they were wrong. Small caps in particular have been on a tear.

I said in my previous article on 10/31 that I expected the Russell 2000 small caps to resume their outperformance once the election results had a chance to shake out. Going forward, I expect a greater focus on positive fundamentals to permeate investors’ psyche, leading once again to healthier market breadth, diverse leadership, and higher prices. I expect Trump’s policies, along with a mostly cooperative Republican-controlled Congress, to be mildly inflationary and favorable for business investment and earnings growth, with certain market segments that had been targeted by the Democrats now set to strengthen. This already has become a positive for Sabrient’s fundamentals-based portfolios.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look neutral as adjustments to sell-side forward estimates based on the election are only starting to trickle into our model (even though investors haven’t waited around for them), but the sector rotation model now suggests a bullish stance. Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

It is encouraging to see that Q3 earnings season is looking a bit better than expected and is on track to produce positive earnings growth for the first time since Q1 2015 (that was six straight quarters of negative year-over-year growth!) – and on positive revenue growth, to boot. Entering earnings season, Wall Street’s mood had turned negative after an expectation earlier in the year that Q3 would be the big turnaround quarter, so the upside surprises so far have been most welcome.

On the other hand, stocks appear to be enduring something of a “stealth correction” or risk-off activity, which has been impacting small caps much more than the larges. After seven months of expansion (essentially from Feb 11 until Sept 22), market breadth has been shrinking over the past month, as news headlines take the stage away from fundamentals, which is not surprising given the impending election. I think we will see elevated volatility in advance of election day, but after rationalizing what it all means (no matter what result transpires), I expect the market to stabilize – at least until the December 14 FOMC meeting. From a technical standpoint, the proverbial spring remains tightly coiled for a significant move. But even if the initial move is down, I would consider it a buying opportunity, as I think investors will return to a focus on fundamentals, leading once again to healthier market breadth and diverse leadership, with higher prices in our future.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look relatively bullish, although the sector rotation model still suggests a neutral stance. Read on....

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

As Q3 came to a close, investors continued to show cautious optimism and the S&P 500 posted a gain for the fourth straight quarter. After a lengthy period of time in which markets were buffeted by the daily news about oil prices, jobs reports, Fed rate hike intentions, China growth, Brexit, US economic expansion/contraction, Zika virus, and ISIS inspired attacks, the focus has switched back to improving fundamentals.

In particular, as Q3 earnings reporting season gets started, there remains a broad expectation that the corporate “earnings recession” has bottomed and that companies will start showing better earnings growth (hopefully driven by revenue growth), particularly in the beaten-down market segments like Energy and Materials. I think the only thing holding back stocks right now is investor uncertainty about market reaction to two things: a potential Trump presidential victory and to the next Fed rate hike (expected on December 14). From a technical standpoint, the spring is coiling tightly for big move.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas. Overall, our sector rankings look relatively bullish, although the sector rotation model still suggests a neutral stance.

By Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

On Wednesday afternoon, the Fed came through to fulfill what was widely expected – no change to the discount rate just yet. But it did pump up its hawkish language a bit. The FOMC never wants to surprise the markets, so given that it had not telegraphed a rate hike, it simply wasn’t going to happen. Looking forward, however, given that the committee sees the balance of economic risks at an equilibrium, a hike in December looks like a slam-dunk unless something changes dramatically. Beyond that, they are essentially telegraphing two rate hikes next year, as well. The upshot is that investors were happy and dutifully responded with a strong rally across many asset classes to finish off the day.

In this periodic update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable ETF trading ideas.