by Scott Martindale
President, Sabrient Systems LLC

Volatility suddenly returned with a vengeance last week – to both stocks and bonds. In fact, on Wednesday, while the -3.1% single-day selloff in the S&P 500 didn’t quite equal the -4.1% fall on February 3, the normal “flight to safety” into US Treasuries when stocks sell off didn’t occur, which was quite distressing to market participants and pundits alike. But on Thursday, bonds caught a bid while equities continued their fall. Suddenly, talk has become more serious about the potential for slower global growth due to rising interest rates and escalating trade wars.

But has anything really changed from a fundamental standpoint? I would say, absolutely not. Although the risk-off rotation since June 11 continues to hold back Sabrient’s cyclicals-oriented portfolios, our quantitative model still suggests that little has changed with the fundamentally strong outlook characterized by global economic growth, impressive US corporate earnings, modest inflation, low real interest rates, a stable global banking system, and historic fiscal stimulus in the US (including both tax relief and deregulation). Moreover, it appears to me that equities are severely oversold, and now is a good time to be accumulating high-quality stocks with attractive forward valuations from the cyclical sectors and small caps.

When a similar correction happened in February, the main culprits were inflation worries and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. After all, the so-called “Fed Put” has long supported the stock market. But then the Fed commentary became less hawkish and more data-driven, which was helpful given modest inflation data, but the start of the trade war rhetoric kept the market from bouncing back with as much gusto as it had been displaying.

So, what caused the correction this time? Well, to an extent, bipartisan support for heightened regulation and consumer privacy protections hit some of the mega-cap InfoTech stocks that had been leading the market. But in my view, the sudden spikes in fear (and the VIX) and in Treasury yields and the resulting rush to the exit in stocks was due to a combination of the Federal Reserve chairman’s suddenly hawkish rhetoric about interest rates and China’s extreme measures to offset damage from its trade war with the US.

In this periodic update, I provide a market commentary, offer my technical analysis of the S&P 500, review Sabrient’s latest fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten US business sectors, and serve up some actionable ETF trading ideas. In summary, our sector rankings remain bullish, while the sector rotation model has switched to a neutral posture due to the recent correction. Read on....

Scott MartindaleMore unnerving conflicts around the globe have flared up, but as usual, U.S. equity investors have given it nary a yawn as they seem to have become pretty much numb to the steady stream of unwelcome news, particularly out of the Middle East. Now we enter the summer version of earnings season.

Stress Tests, Fed Frets and Sideways Bets

by Daniel Sckolnik of ETF Periscope

"A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five." ~ Groucho Marx

daniel / Tag: AAPL, AMZN, AXP, ETFs, FXG, KBRE, MCD, MFST, XLB, XOP / 0 Comments

“To realize that you do not understand is a virtue; Not to realize that you do not understand is a defect” ~ Lao Tzu

The markets are ready to dive off a cliff. Or maybe it just feels that way.

daniel / Tag: ETF, ETF-trading, IWP, KBE, KBW, PIIGS, QTEC, XOP / 0 Comments

"Prophecy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks."
--  Mark Twain

Back around 2000 years ago, the Greeks consulted the Delphic Oracle on
everything from important matters of public policy to personal affairs. The Oracle had a pretty decent reputation for seeing into the future, aided, no doubt, by the generous intake of hallucinogenic vapors she reputedly inhaled.

daniel / Tag: ETF, ETF-trading, exchange-traded-funds, IWP, KBE, QTEK, XOP / 0 Comments